The future development of China's Beidou Navigation System, the opportunities and challenges faced by industrial development, and the trends and hopes for industrial development
When it comes to navigation, the first thing people think of is definitely GPS, and in the near future, the first thing you will think of is undoubtedly the Beidou Navigation System. The Beidou Navigation Satellite System is a satellite navigation system independently built and operated by China. It is one of the four major global navigation satellite systems, along with GPS from the United States, GLONASS from Russia, and Galileo from the European Union.
The GPS positioning system is applied in various aspects of life, but what you may not know is that the GPS positioning system was proposed by the US military and heavily invested in its development. GPS is also widely used in the military field.
1、 The Development of Beidou Navigation System
The first time the Beidou system met people was probably in 2008- during the Wenchuan earthquake relief efforts, it was the first generation of Beidou equipment that sent the first message from the earthquake stricken area. 201818 is the intensive launch time for the Beidou Navigation System, with plans to launch one satellite every month in the second half of the year. Coupled with the recovery of the military sector, Beidou Navigation is highly anticipated.
The Beidou Satellite Navigation System is a satellite navigation system independently built and operated by China to meet the needs of national security and economic and social development. It is an important national space infrastructure that provides all-weather, all-weather, high-precision positioning, navigation, and timing services for global users.
According to the three-step strategic plan outlined in the White Paper on China's Beidou Satellite Navigation System, the first step is to establish the Beidou-1 system by the end of 2000 to provide services to China; The second step is to establish the Beidou-2 system by the end of 2012, providing services to the Asia Pacific region; The third step is to establish the Beidou-3 global system around 2020 and provide services to the world.
Recently, the first overseas center of China's Beidou satellite navigation system, the China Arab Beidou Center, held a plaque unveiling ceremony at the headquarters of the Arab Information and Communication Technology Organization in Tunisia. The Beidou satellite navigation system has entered the intensive launch stage of global networking. The first phase of the construction of the Beidou ground-based enhanced system, known as the "National One Network," has officially passed the acceptance inspection and can provide real-time dynamic centimeter level precise positioning services in 21 provinces of China.
At present, the most noteworthy markets for China's Beidou industry are transportation, agriculture (automation and precision operation of agricultural machinery), and smart cities (information construction of underground pipelines, intelligent buildings, etc.).
The broader market of the Beidou industry in the future lies in mass applications, including applications based on mobile phones or on-board facilities. However, this market is associated with the Internet, big data, sharing economy, etc. How big the Beidou system can occupy depends on its service capabilities.
With the Beidou Navigation System, the distance can be accurately measured up to 1 meter, so you no longer have to worry about the embarrassing incident of driving into a ditch or entering a dead end.
Under the trend of modern warfare development, the military has moved from mechanization to intelligence and informatization, and the issuance of military command has also shifted from command flags and horns, wireless telegraphy to more advanced communication systems. With the flattening of command systems and the increasing proactivity of combat units, the functionality and compatibility of wireless communication equipment terminals will be one of the main development characteristics of wireless communication.
（1） The development potential of the Beidou navigation market is enormous
The market size of China's satellite navigation and location services industry continues to expand, with a steady increase in the total output value of the industry and enormous potential for market development. In 2017, the output value of China's satellite navigation and location service industry reached 255 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.4%. The output value of core industries, including chip technology manufacturing, algorithms, and terminals, has reached 90.2 billion yuan, with Beidou technology contributing over 80%, serving as a key driving force for the core technology industry; In addition, the market output value of software applications, industry data, system integration, and location-based operational services reached 164.8 billion yuan. The domestic market size of satellite navigation equipment accounts for nearly 15% of the global market. With the increasing maturity of the Beidou system technology and the expansion of the industry application market, the market share of Beidou related products in the international satellite navigation market will continue to increase in the future
From the perspective of application fields, the Beidou system has been widely used in more than ten industries such as surveying and mapping, transportation, maritime and shipping, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, land monitoring, excavation and exploration, and public utilities. According to the "2018 White Book on the Development of China's Satellite Navigation and Location Services Industry", in 2017, the total number of intelligent terminal products using Beidou compatible chips in China, including smartphones, reached nearly 500 million social users. The proportion of domestically sold smartphones compatible with Beidou applications has exceeded 50%, and the sales volume of professional Beidou high-precision receiver terminals has exceeded 140000 units. It is expected that by 2020, the scale of Beidou applications in major segmented markets such as transportation, precision agriculture, urban comprehensive security, and smart city construction is expected to exceed 2 trillion yuan.
From the perspective of the Beidou military market, the Beidou navigation system has been prioritized for national defense and will also be used for national defense. There is still a lot of space for the informationization construction of military equipment in China, and Beidou satellite navigation, as a domestically produced independent satellite navigation system, is the key direction of military informationization construction. From a top-down perspective, the growth rate of military spending has exceeded expectations. The turning point of military spending growth in 2018 is beginning to emerge, and compensatory procurement will be increased in the next three years to complete the five-year plan. Military informationization investment will benefit first, and the future increase in orders for Beidou navigation in the national defense market is considerable. In addition, there are some non Beidou navigation system and Beidou-2 system equipment in the navigation and positioning equipment already in service in our military. The mature application of Beidou system will also bring about the demand for stock replacement.
（2） Analysis of the Development of the Software Information Service Industry
The software and information services sector mainly focuses on information technology services such as communication network construction, network proxy maintenance, mobile network optimization, and software and system integration. The revenue from software and information services has maintained steady growth in recent years. In 2017, due to the impact of military reform and other factors, the revenue from terminal equipment declined, causing the proportion of software and information services revenue to rise to nearly 50% of total revenue. From the perspective of gross profit margin, the gross profit margin of software and information services revenue is not high compared to wireless communication and Beidou navigation, but relatively stable.
2、 Opportunities and Challenges Faced by the Industrial Development of Beidou Navigation System
（1） Development opportunities
Under the stimulation of policies such as military civilian integration and big data, the Beidou navigation industry will usher in a rapid market development opportunity; With the emergence of new technologies and economic models such as big data, cloud computing, the Internet of Things, the Internet of Vehicles, the Internet of Ships, and low-carbon economy, the industrial application of navigation location will usher in a leapfrog development opportunity. According to predictions, the market size of the Beidou navigation industry will reach 400 billion yuan by 2020, with an average annual growth rate of 20%. However, compared with Western countries, the Beidou navigation application market is still a potential market. Currently, the installation rate of in car navigation in China is less than 4%, which is significantly lower than Japan's 59% and Europe and America's 25%. Therefore, the Beidou navigation industry has broad market prospects.
（2） Industrial development environment
1. International industrial development environment
In recent years, preliminary achievements have been made in the infrastructure construction of BeiDou navigation location information services. International satellite navigation chip giants (U-blox, Novatel, SRC (SIRF)) have expressed their support for the development of BeiDou navigation and actively participated in the testing of the BeiDou navigation system. With the advantages of these international giants in technology, processes, experience, and market, their related products will be fully launched in the market in a few months. Domestic enterprises need to achieve breakthroughs and catch-up through various means in order to gain an advantage in competition with international giants and give the Beidou system a "Chinese chip".
2. Domestic industrial development environment
At present, there are more than 1000 domestic enterprises engaged in the Beidou related industry. The domestic industry norms and technical standards are not yet perfect, and the domestic financing environment is not optimistic. Currently, the total assets of listed Beidou enterprises are only tens of billions of yuan, and the total financing through various channels is only about 10 billion yuan. Due to the current early stage of development in the industry, there is a lack of good application and business models. Finding a good application and business model that balances the interests of providers and consumers is the key to breaking through the scale of Beidou users.
3、 The Industry Development Trend and Hope of Beidou Navigation System
As a national strategic emerging industry, the Beidou industry chain, from component suppliers and product manufacturers to integrators and operators, will gradually develop into deeper levels of technology upstream of the industry chain with the expansion of market size, and thus differentiate into more specialized leading enterprises with high, precision, and cutting-edge technology. The Beidou navigation application industry has great development space from the perspective of national security strategy, and can form a unique industry with Chinese characteristics. In the future, it will be a combination of deeper technical specialization and higher level marketization.
The success or failure of the promotion of the Beidou system application is related to whether it can break the monopoly of the US GPS and ensure China's national defense and economic security. Under the favorable policy guidance of the government and regulatory authorities, with sufficient industrial development funds as a backing, we will be able to break through technological barriers, overcome technological obstacles to industrial development, achieve healthy and rapid development of the Beidou navigation industry, and create a grand blueprint for the development of the Beidou navigation industry.
(Taken from China Industry Information Network)